All Terrain Thinking

A Compendium of things I think are Important

"If you teach a man to think he is thinking, he will love you. If you teach a man to think, he will hate you. - Ed McArthur"
 
 

Economics: It's not just whats' in your wallet

1930s: Classical Macroeconomic Theory

The setting

"All systems either of preference or of restraint, therefore, being thus completely taken away, the obvious and simple system of natural liberty establishes itself of its own accord. Every man, as long as he does not violate the laws of justice, is left perfectly free to pursue his own interest his own way, and to bring both his industry and capital into competition with those of any other man, or order of men. The sovereign is completely discharged from a duty, in the attempting to perform which no human wisdom or knowledge could ever be sufficient; the duty of superintending the industry of private people, and of directing it towards the employments most suitable to the interest of society." Adam Smith, The wealth of nations. Book 4, Chapter 9

"It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. We address ourselves, not to their humanity but to their self-love, and never talk to them of our necessities but of their advantages."  Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, Book I Chapter II p16

The greatest improvement in the productive powers of labour, and the greater part of the skill, dexterity and judgement with which it is any where directed, or applied, seem to have been the effects of the division of labour. Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, Vol. I, Book I, Chapter I, p5

As it is the power of exchanging that gives occasion to the division of labour, so the extent of this division must always be limited by the extent of that power, or, in other words, by the extent of the market. Adam Smith The Wealth of Nations, Vol. I Book I Chapter III p19

"neither a state nor a bank ever has had unrestricted power of issuing paper money, without abusing that power; in all States, therefore, the issue of paper money ought to be under some check and control; and none seems so proper as that of subjecting the issuers of paper money to the obligation of paying their notes, either in gold coin or bullion."David Ricardo

"the greatness of America has grown out of a political and social system and a method of control of economic forces distinctly its own - our American system - which has carried this great experiment in human welfare further than ever before in all history. We are nearer today to the ideal of the abolition of poverty and fear from the lives of men and women than ever before in any land" Herbert Hoover (future president) Oct 22, 1928

"Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. … It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people." The Memoirs of Herbert Hoover: 1929-1941, The Great Depression p30

"the average man won't really do a day's work unless he is caught and cannot get out. There is plenty of work to do if people would do it. Henry Ford March 1931

"This is not an issue as too whether people shall go hungry or cold in then United States. It is solely a question of the best method by which hunger and cold shall be prevented. It is a question of whether the American people...will maintain the spirit of charity and mutual self-help... as distinguished ... from appropriations out of the Federal Treasury for such purposes... If we break down this sense of responsibility and individual generosity ... in times of national difficulty and if we start appropriations of this character we have ... impaired something infinitely valuable in the life of the American people... Once this has happened... we are faced with the abyss of reliance in future upon government charity in one form or another. I am confident that our people have the resources, the initiative, the courage, the stamina and the kindliness of spirit to meet this situation in the way they have met their problems over generations." Herbert Hoover February 1931

"close, regular, predictable relationship between the quantity of money, national income, and prices..." Milton Friedman

"after the war the conditions necessary to the maintenance of the gold standard should be restored" [for it was the] "only effective remedy for an adverse balance of trade and an undue growth of credit."   Cunliffe Committee's First Interim Report, Aug 15, 1918

"The Federal Reserve System is a system of productive credit. It is not a system of credit for either investment or speculative purposes." Fed’s 10th Annual Report

"when the Federal Reserve banks operate as investment banks, by buying investments, they force the member banks of the country to operate as investment banks by buying investments or loaning against investments …" Adolf Miller, Fed Board member 1914-1936

"Periods of internal panic and external demand for bullion commonly occur together … The holders of the reserve have, therefore, to treat two opposite maladies at once – one requiring stringent remedies, and especially a rapid rise in the rate of interest; and the other an alleviative treatment with large and ready loans." Walter Bagehot, Lombard Street 1873 p 56.

"...in bringing back the virtues of old-fashioned capitalism, we have brought back some of its vices..." Paul Krugman. The return of depression

real GDP.jpg (9243 bytes)realGDPgrow.jpg (11253 bytes)

urat.jpg (11102 bytes)inflat.jpg (9242 bytes)

Questions of the day

  • .5  What are the two "types" of macro policies that the government could have used to get the economy out of the Depression?
  • 1. What was the "rule" that the government was to follow with regard to its spending and taxing policies? 
  • 2. How does an increase in government spending crowd out the private sector?
  • 3. What was the gold standard?  How did this solve the trade imbalance problem?
  • 4. What is the quantity theory of money? What did this "prove" was the impact of an increase in money supply?
  • 5. Did monetary forces cause the Depression?
  • 6. Explain Friedman's quote: "Inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon."

The outline

  • Equilibrium condition (I - S) + (G - T) + (X - M) = 0

  • Internal balance (S - I) = 0

  • External balance (X - M) = 0

    • Gold standard

  • Money supply process

  • Monetary transmission mechanism

    • Quantity theory of money

  • Labor market (Ls = Ld)

  • Conclusions - Policy Implications

    • AS - AD diagram

    • Monetary policy

    • Fiscal policy


The equilibrium condition

(1) Y = C + I + G + X - M

(2) I + G + X = S + T + M

(3) (I - S) + (X - M) = (T - G)

Internal balance

Diagram 1
Capital Market in the Classical Model

ClassIS.gif (2267 bytes)

External balance

Diagram 2
Foreign Exchange Market in the Classical Model:
The Gold Standard

Class Gold.gif (2737 bytes)

 

Money supply process: The Fed

Fed's Original Balance Sheet

Assets   Liabilities  
Gold 500 Federal Reserve Notes: Currency 900
Loans to banks 400 Federal Reserve Notes:Bank Reserves 100
Loans to government: Government Securities 100    
Total 1000 Total 1000

Fed's New Balance Sheet with trade surplus of 50

Assets   Liabilities  
Gold 500 +50 Federal Reserve Notes: Currency 900 +50
Loans to banks 400 Federal Reserve Notes:Bank Reserves 100
Loans to government: Government Securities 100    
Total 1000 +50 Total 1000 +50

Fed's Newer Balance Sheet after decline in loans to banks

Assets   Liabilities  
Gold 500 Federal Reserve Notes: Currency 900
Loans to banks 400 - 50 Federal Reserve Notes:Bank Reserves 100 - 50
Loans to government: Government Securities 100    
Total 1000 - 50 Total 1000 - 50

Money transmission mechanism

Quantity Theory of money:

version 1:  (4) MV = PY

version 2:  (4') m + v = p + y

 

Classical labor market

Diagram 3
Labor Market in the Classical Model

ClassLab.gif (2490 bytes)

Conclusions

Classical AS - AD

Diagram 4
The Classical AS - AD Model

ClassASAD.gif (2468 bytes)

 

The Policy Implications

Diagram 5
Fiscal Policy in the Classical Model

­ G Þ ­ r Þ ¯ I Þ [­ G = ¯ C + ¯ I ]

ß Þ ­ S Þ ¯ C

Diagram 6
Monetary Policy in the Classical Model

­ P Þ  ­ PY Þ  ­ P {If ­ Y = 0 then ­ P = ­ M}

ß Þ  ­ Y {p = m}

 

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